Lebanon Israel: the Middle east after Hassan Nasrallah
After the death....of ....Hassan Nasrallah, the tension between...Lebanon and Israel increased.....Nasrallah was a powerful and popular leader who turned Hezbollah into the most powerful political and military organization in Lebanon. His death has created a political vacuum and uncertainty about Lebanon's future.
In this article, we will examine the relationship between Lebanon and Israel the future direction of Hezbollah and the implications of this event in the Middle East.
What was the purpose of bunkers?
In Lebanon on Friday evening, Israel, with the help of US intelligence, dropped 85 bunker-buster bombs in Dahiya, south of Beirut. These were 5-pound and 20-pound bombs, which Israel has dropped thousands of times a year on residential areas in Gaza. According to the New York Times, 2 American and 8 Israeli officials said that this attack was carried out to target the head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. This news implies that the operation was either carried out jointly by the Israeli and US military or that the intelligence agencies of both were definitely involved or that the Israeli military shared intelligence with the US before the attack. So at that time, they did not confirm whether Hassan Nasrallah was killed in the attack or not. Still, now the Israeli forces and a few hours later Hezbollah also confirmed that the head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary General Killed in a night attack.
Is Hasan Nasrallah dead?
He was accompanied by some other commanders whose future has not yet been released, but a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Abbas Neel Foroshan, was also present. Iranian media have confirmed that. He was killed. He was probably one of the commanders who acted as a link between the Resistance Forces and Iran. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's charismatic leader, was this organisation's third secretary general. In which three bodies play the role of the Supreme Council. Then the secretary general is elected, practically the secretary general leads the party, so Hassan Nasrallah was the third secretary general, i.e. the third party head.
What was the beginning of Hezbollah?
Before him, Hezbollah was controlled by not one but two founding members, one of them was Sobhi al-Tafili and the other was Seyyed Abbas al-Maswi. Both of them received religious education from Najaf, Iraq. Both were in Iraq then and greatly influenced by the Iranian revolution. At that time, the famous Shia leader in Iraq, Syed Muhammad Baqir Sadr, also asked his followers to support the Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini. When the leaders returned to Lebanon at the very beginning of the 80s, they re-founded Hezbollah in the style of the Iranian revolution. These two continued to jointly lead Hezbollah for the next several years. In 1989, the secretary-general of Hezbollah position was created. In a high-level meeting of Hezbollah, Sumit Tafili was elected the first secretary-general, meaning that no longer two, but one person led it. In 1991, Abbas al-Mosri was elected the second general secretary. The Israel forces had occupied the southern part of Lebanon and the Lebanese Civil War had been won by Hizbollah with the help of Iran and brought stability to North Lebanon.
The other General Secretary was returning from a rally in a small area in the village of Southern Lebanon when his convoy was attacked by Israel. Two Israeli gunship helicopters fired rockets at the convoy. Three other vehicles were destroyed in Hasan Nasrallah who died? 39-year-old Bas Al-Moswi, his wife and 6-year-old son were all killed in the incident. Four of Abbas Al-Moswi's bodyguards were also killed, followed by Hassan Nasrallah, 31 years and five months old, favoured by Iranian support and senior leadership. was made leader even though he was neither a founding member of the party nor was he known by many people in Lebanon outside the party or the party. People were surprised to see Hassan Nasrallah elected, how did such a young man become the leader of such a large Jangoot group?
What is the main reason....for...the fighting in Israel?
Because the original purpose of this organization was to fight against Israel, how can such a young guy, who has never been in the top positions of the party, fight, how can he lead such a big party? Pros and cons were all in their hearts,
But in the next few days, some events took place that immediately spread his name in Lebanon and Israel. Already the humiliating defeat in 1967 was fresh, and no Arab power could think of fighting Israel.
He fired Israeli rockets at the old Russian Katusha. They fell in many places in Israel and caused great destruction. The second attack was carried out outside the Israeli embassy in Turkey. An Israeli duty officer was killed in a car bomb attack here. The Israeli embassy was attacked in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina. As a result, 29 people were killed and 200 were injured, including several officials of the Israeli embassy. A part of the embassy building also collapsed. These three attacks brought Hassan Nasrallah's name into the limelight. The following year, Israel resumed operations, and Israel destroyed much of Lebanon's infrastructure.
When Nasrullah was elected Secretary General
He had many detractors in the Christian and Sunni communities, which is why Nasrallah was very protective of himself when he became Secretary General. For example, when he gave his first and last interview to the New York Times in 2002, reporters were blindfolded several kilometres from the rally, then wheeled around in a car in South Beirut for a long time, At some point he was suddenly driven to the meeting place, blindfolded and taken to Hassan Nasrallah before his belongings were searched, even the pen he was carrying. . Removed the black eye and saw that there was nothing in it. During his 32-year tenure as Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah made his organization more powerful than the Lebanese Army and a large part of the Lebanese forces in Lebanon.
There is also the military because when the organization was formed, the Lebanese army made it its partner as a resistance group against the Israeli occupation while eliminating all other militias and giving them only to Hezbollah. It was allowed to flourish because the Lebanese army knew very well that the Lebanese army could not compete with the Israelis, and that they could not wage guerrilla warfare, so what happened was that during the 18 years from 1982 to 2000, Hezbollah became. So powerful that the Lebanese army could no longer suppress it even if it wanted to, it created anxiety throughout Lebanese society that still exists, and three centres of power have clearly emerged in such a small population of 5 million. : A political government, a military and a political party. The fourth element of Iranian influence is Allah, which after Saddam Hussein has now spread to Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
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| Lebanon Israel |
Yemen is also an arm of it.
Yemen is also an arm of it, this whole system is called resistance, Iran gives it the same name, this is the reason why the government of Lebanon also calls Hezbollah the Resistance Force. Iranian general Qassem Soleimani continued to lead, train him and continue to head him. When the United States targeted Qassem Soleimani in Iraq in January 2020, since then Hassan Nasrallah was the symbolic head of the resistance force, This means that after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, not only the Lebanese militia will be leaderless, but the joint command of the Iranian Bagh Resistance has also temporarily ended. American intelligence has targeted Iranian influence not only here but in the entire region and one thing is clear from this Israel has created its own moles and spies in all Iranian banking forces. The spies are so numerous and so well-connected that Israeli intelligence knows exactly their purchasing, their hiring, their locations, meeting timings, and which commanders are going to be in the meetings for how long.
In the last 6 months, Israel has eliminated the first ranks of Hezbollah
If you think about it, over the last 6 months, Israel has systematically eliminated the first line of leadership of Hezbollah, the leadership after the top leadership. The rocket division commander, who had the intelligence to plan a major attack on Israel, on September 20 targeted Ibrahim Aqeel, Hezbollah's top military chief, the head of one of its five councils... Also killed were Ahmed Wahabi and Ali Karki, who were among the senior leaders of the Rizwan Force. When these two commanders were present, more than a dozen senior leaders of the Rizwan Force were also present with them. According to Israel and Hezbollah, all or most of them were killed in action on July 30. Shadow top commander Fawad Shakar was targeted in his office, as were Hamas's Muhammad Nasser Taleb Abdullah, Ismail Haniyeh and Lowari Muhammad Taif. All of these people were killed on Lebanese soil, which clearly means that Hezbollah's leadership is in a very compromised position, its ranks and territories are highly corrupted, and there are many spies and Israeli intelligence on the ground. Sex has started. And it is also present in their superior command and intelligence
How Israel Spies against Hezbollah in Lebanon
In the 2006 war, Israel had to withdraw after a month of fighting without achieving military objectives. Since then, Israel and the US have been at loggerheads over the fact that they attacked Hezbollah unprepared and did not take the time to fully understand the organization. So in the 18 years since the 2006 defeat, Israel has done two things, deployed a US-backed satellite and drones over Lebanon. From this state-of-the-art network, Israeli intelligence constantly receives high-definition images and videos with the help of Western powers. These images and videos are analyzed by AI. And they know which areas are emitting the most gases, the presence of vehicles, weapons factories and ammunition. These analyses use the same technology used for space exploration. NASA experts are used by American agencies for space research.
Israeli intelligence locks AI targets in these locations
Israeli intelligence locks on targets through AI at these locations, from where ground intelligence ground spies come into play. Over the past 18 years, Israel has dismantled entire networks of Lebanese civil society, such as Gaza. And the West Bank has it. In the 1970s, a civil war was raging in Lebanon, with Christians, Shiites, Muslims, pro-French, Arab Sunnis and many smaller groups fighting each other. These battles are a taif contract. After the war, Hezbollah emerged as the biggest force, although the rest of the militias were destroyed. The supporters of these militias were obviously against Hezbollah. They were in Lebanon. Has secret access. Shopping malls and street cameras, or Israel can get them temporarily whenever it wants, satellite and A.I. Now we make it easy for him to verify the information he has through it.
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| Hezbollah's factories |
Hezbollah's factories and offices are underground
Hezbollah's factories and offices are underground, 10 to 20 meters below ground, so when Israeli fighter jets fire bunker busty bombs, all the surrounding buildings are buried deep into the ground. It collapses like a multi-storied building falling off its foundations. Most of these attacks kill civilians, or many target civilian factories and activities unrelated to Hezbollah or the military, such as AI systems. Nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide oxide methane gases etc. are checked in the air but all these gases are also produced in the work of other industries while Masad's AI system is operated with the help of Google, and Microsoft. And Meta, meaning Facebook. He cannot distinguish what kind of industrial boiler these gases are coming from, he cannot understand whether weapons or related products are actually being manufactured or something common.
Israel and US AI Killing Systems
Sadly, the AI killing systems that Israel and the US boast about are actually at their e-mature stage. Unfortunately, some of this AI technology is being tested on the people of Lebanon and Palestine. After learning experiences and improving it, they will now sell it to the whole world, just like the Pegasus software in Israel was first used by Israel for secret surveillance of Palestinians, improved, and now the Israeli Civilian Soldier software. Many companies are using it.
The world is going to be with this AI system, which powerful leaders are using to secretly monitor their citizens, or destroy democracy. Marketing agents in Israel will sell this AI system, then they will give examples of successful attacks on Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon and the world will pay them billions of dollars to buy these systems.
A weak intelligence system of Iran vs. the US and Israeli intelligence systems
Remember that a nation that cannot create unity within itself, that cannot fully resolve its internal differences, becomes a test of the weapons of the enemies. Against this highly advanced intelligence system of the US and Israel, Iran has a weak intelligence system working on its own network, which is still far behind the intelligence of the world but active, with advanced hacking techniques and fakes. There are real estate agents. have created their own frontal agents inside Israel, where they advertise attractive online scams involving drones, cryptocurrency games, and high-profit real estate businesses. is tricked into doing. When they contact them, they are spoken to in Hebrew, Arabic or English. He offers to do it separately, but the jobs aren't very high-end, what this Iranian agent does with them is to put up a poster or stick something outside someone's house. After that, it will also send the agent the fixed amount in cryptocurrency.
If it is compromised in an operation, it can never get out of this trap and the same agent who used it for a small task can use it for a big task. Israeli forces are also worried about the Iranian espionage network. They won't even get it, according to Israel, then they will extract quality from these agents.
After Hassan Nasrallah, what will happen to the war between Lebanese and Israel?
What will happen to Lebanon's resistance forces and Israel's Gaza war after Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, there is no doubt that Hezbollah is not in a position to launch a major counterattack immediately in this whole development. But as soon as it is resisted. As soon as the new leadership is announced, it will be known later whether Hezbollah will launch a major attack on Israel with its power.
Hashim Safuddin, the new commander of Hezbollah, was supposed to be the new Secretary General. He is Hassan Nasrallah's cousin and has been the head of the political council for years. Hassan Nasrullah had appointed him as his successor for many years. In addition, according to the organization, the areas should be visited on them. He was a senior leader of the organization and was also the head of the council for many years, but there have been reports from the media that Hashim Safuddin was actually in the bunker where Hassan Nasrullah was targeted.
Some reports are coming from Lebanon on social media that Hashim Safuddin is safe and the central council of the organization may elect him as secretary general, but until he is elected, it is being said that Naeem Qasim. has been temporarily made the head of Hezbollah, but the actual decision will be made in the Council after some time in the Shura. Most likely, if 60-year-old Hashim Safuddin survives the September 27 attack and becomes a sector general, the organization will not have another experienced commander who knows the strengths, weaknesses, and weaknesses of the organization and its various sectors. Yes, you have connections with him. International resistance can lead better if all such leadership is lost. The international links he had and the deals he had with regional alliances over the years would pose a huge problem for Hezbollah.
Hezbollah still has many such leaders.
It seems that Hezbollah still has many such leaders, they know their very good regional and organizational connections, and now they know that the guerrilla leaders in this metrical war only last a few years, two, three, four, or five. Sal and can lead here.
Hassan Nasrallah has been in command for 32 years, so while his death is a blow to Hezbollah, it is also a success for organizations whose top leaders have survived for more than a decade, and that too. In the situation when Israel attacked them. One of the largest bombing campaigns of modern warfare,
As was his campaign by the Daya doctrine, named after the same part of Beirut, Lebanon, where Israel delivered 205 and 5 on September 27. Then it was razed to the ground and all the buildings were demolished. Instead of military targets, the Israeli forces had adopted a policy of destroying the infrastructure of the settlements in Seville so badly that the residents themselves would turn against the militants and organizations.
Israel attacked Hezbollah's stronghold
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran are also being threatened by Israeli forces to do the same and may even have received training there. This place is also a stronghold of Hezbollah. It is one of the parts of Lebanon with the highest population concentration, meaning many people live in a small area. 85% of the population is Shia and thousands of Palestinian families also live there. It was expelled when Israeli forces occupied the Arab territories in 1948. The policing and civil administration here are also with Hezbollah. There is no civil administration in Lebanon.
There are 20 to 30 thousand people living here, but none of them probably know where the places and meetings of the head of Hezbollah and its commanders are held, so the Israeli forces have warned the citizens to stay away from these places. Stay away from places where Hizbullah is active. Something that an ordinary Lebanese citizen cannot even willingly follow, so these types of Israeli warnings are actually part of a psychological war to terrorize the civilian population. Israel killed more than 50,000 people, including women and children, in 11 months.
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| Economy affected by war |
How is the economy affected by war?
But the constant war is also hurting Israel's own economy. Let me give you an example of how Israel's economy is being disturbed. Most of the youth working in them were called for military duty.
Israeli youths who were doing business online can no longer continue their network in another city in Israel because their teams have been disbanded and businesses in northern Israel are closed anyway.
The situation is the same in central Israel. We don't know how many soldiers Israel currently has and how many forces are recruited from civilians because no army can reveal this secret, but according to an estimate, there are around 300,000 to 500,000 reserves. That is, non-military. Regulars are currently on duty. This means that these people have left their jobs in colleges, shop departments and other jobs and are currently engaged in the war.
The number of travelling arrivals has decreased. Millions of people visit Palestine every year to see the historic city of occupied Jerusalem, which is still occupied by Israel. In Jerusalem, shops are empty until the middle of this year. The international credit rating agency Moody's has also downgraded Israel's AB rating from two notches to double-A1, the lowest rating in Israel's history.
Still near the top-ranking countries, but not as high as the US and some other European countries. Hezbollah's $300 Kato Shah rockets are intercepted by Israel's $50,000 to $100,000 missiles. The number of these missiles is not unlimited. For this, the US gives Israel at least three and a half billion dollars a year, but it cannot even build more than 20,000 missiles, that is if Hezbollah or a guerilla force in Yemen continues to fire large numbers of cheap rockets for a long time. time, then it will be impossible for the Israeli ironclad defence system to stop them because it will not have enough missiles.
In this war situation, when investment does not come from outside, Israel will have to rely 100% on US aid, which will obviously reduce the number and number of missiles. Investors began to question investing in Israel because of claims against Israel's judicial system by radical Jews led by Netanyahu, who sought to bring the judiciary under political control, Which, But there was severe criticism once again throughout Israel. News of the turmoil spread across the world, causing investors to pull out of their investments.
The Washington Post and several Israeli newspapers reported on it, and soon after, on October 7, international buyers sympathized with Israeli companies but cancelled their orders and backup plans when fighting broke out. started talking about
That is, permanent war is nothing less than death to the advanced form of Israel as a modern country. Permanent war will make it Lebanon and Gaza. An enemy can be economically and militarily exhausted by a prolonged war.
This war and the events to date have completely changed the politics of the Middle East.
The region will not be the same as it was by 2023. Despite U.S. aid, Hezbollah's rocket attacks on northern Israel have not stopped, which is their stated goal, meaning Israeli forces will have to launch a ground offensive and counter Hezbollah.
This would mean several years of new guerilla warfare. This whole situation can turn towards peace if the US takes some strong steps, i.e. they force the warring parties and bring the two groups to the table in the form of negotiations.
But it seems that even if talks are a possibility, it won't be until February or March next year. In the name of history, the Vermintarian Chinese General Sanzhu said that a war that cannot be won should not be started.
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